Power prices will rise under Dutton's incomplete nuclear energy 'plan'

Hinkley Point C is a 3GW nuclear plant currently under construction in the UK by a private French company - another nation with decades of nuclear energy experience. Hinkley Point C was started in 2007 and was due to be completed in 2017. The plant has been repeatedly delayed, first to 2027 and now to 2031 - a 14 year delay and a projected 24 year construction time.

This has led to cost blowouts on a budget of £18 billion, to £25 billion, then to £47 billion; an eye watering $90 billion AUD at today's exchange rate.

Nuclear power plants are built around an unstable superheated core of radioactive material. The core is cooled with huge volumes of water (over 10 million cubic metres, 4,200 Olympic swimming pools per day) and buried underground under 1.8 million cubic metres of 'nuclear-grade concrete'.

The world has learned from the nuclear disasters at Chernobyl, Fukoshima, Kyshtym, Windscale and Three Mile Island that collectively have caused massive human health ramifications and environmental damage. Nuclear power plants are dangerous and the only way to make them safe is to bury them.

Dutton has refused to cost his taxpayer funded nuclear reactors, which would have less than 10 GW of capacity combined. Even though it is dispatchable capacity, it is still less than one quarter of Australia's projected energy capacity required by 2045 - roughly when the plants would be finished.

Australia has 20 GW of ageing coal power plants that are ready to retire in the next 10 years. The high cost of maintaining these 50 year old coal generators is the main reason power prices in Australia are so volatile and expensive. For example, the Queensland Callide C plant exploded in 2021 (and has never reopened) leading to a sudden mismatch in supply and demand and prices to rocket.

Dutton's 'plan' presumably involves extending the life of these tired, expensive coal stations. This would come at significant cost to the taxpayer, and much higher costs for energy. Origin received a blank cheque from the New South Wales Government this year for up to $300 million to keep its Eraring coal plant open for two extra years.

Until Dutton provides taxpayers the costs for his nuclear plan we have Australia's leading scientific agency, the CSIRO as a guide. They have suggested a cost of around $86 billion, just for the nuclear plants.

If the Hinkley Point C experience is any guide, the cost would be closer to $200 billion to taxpayers about 25 per cent of Australia's current national debt with zero private capital invested.

Hinkley Point C is being built by a private company, with the cooperation of two countries with over a century of combined nuclear program experience.

The reader may draw their own conclusion about whether an Australian taxpayer funded scheme would be cheaper.

Either way, the inevitable consequence of Dutton's plan is to keep the expensive and polluting coal stations open. Based on Origin's taxpayer funded payout, that could add another $100 billion to the bill.

Jack Redpath is the Principal at Carbon Zero Initiative.