Lambies back in the paddock with top economist to probe Tasmania's finances

The three new JLN MHAs on May 3 lashed the Jeremy Rockliff-led Liberals, saying they were refusing to allow an "independent and unencumbered" review of state finances.

It led to questions about whether the deal between the parties that was crucial to the minority Liberals staying in government after the March 23 election was under threat.

If the deal fell apart, it could potentially trigger another election.

The review of finances, including financial modelling of the proposed Macquarie Point AFL stadium and associated developments, were key parts of the supply and confidence deal the JLN agreed to with the Liberals.

On May 4, the JLN trio - Miriam Beswick, Rebekah Pentland and Andrew Jenner - said the JLN and the Rockliff government had achieved "a significant breakthrough in their collaborative efforts towards financial transparency".

"Despite significant initial hurdles in securing access to Treasury data, the JLN and Premier Jeremy Rockliff have demonstrated a willingness to overcome obstacles and a shared commitment to accountability and transparency," they said.

"With a renewed spirit of goodwill and a commitment to collaboration, the terms of reference for conducting the independent review have now been agreed.

"The JLN is delighted to announce the appointment of esteemed Australian economist and Vice Chancellor's Fellow of the University of Tasmania Mr Saul Eslake as the independent reviewer."

The JLN expects the review to be completed in August.

It would include independent financial modelling of the controversial Macquarie Point project by another prominent economist, Nicholas Gruen.

Senator Lambie had previously said Mr Rockliff could "stick the stadium up his bum" and "up his clacker".

The JLN MPs - who were criticised in some quarters over not securing more outcomes in their confidence and supply deal with the Liberals - said the review agreement and "collaborative effort" were a "significant step forward in achieving transparency and accountability for the state".

"Tasmanians deserve transparency and the JLN will continue to work with the Rockliff government in the spirit of goodwill for the benefit of all Tasmanians," they said.

The government said it welcomed the finalisation of details of the review of finances.

"We have worked collaboratively and in good faith with Jacqui Lambie Network MPs to establish the review and thank them for their constructive input," it said.

Among other things, the review is expected to include long-term projections out to 2036.

The terms of reference are below:

Independent Review of Tasmania's State Finances - Terms of Reference

The Review shall investigate and report upon:

1) Updated forward estimates of the financial statements for the financial years ended 30th June 2024 through 2028, for the general government, public non-financial corporations, and public financial corporations sectors, and for the non-financial public sector and public sector as a whole, in the format presented in the annual Budget Papers and in the Treasurer's Annual Financial Reports, incorporating any and all information which has become available to the Department of Treasury and Finance since the publication of the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook on 29th February 2024 and the cost of the election commitments made by the Government between the prorogation of the previous Parliament and the 23rd March 2024;

2) Longer-term projections of the principal fiscal aggregates for the general government, public non-financial corporations, and public financial corporations sectors, and for the non-financial public sector and public sector as a whole, including in particular revenue and expenses (including interest and superannuation expenses), net operating balance,purchases and sales of non-financial assets, fiscal balance, net debt,net financial liabilities, net worth, and cash flows, for each of the financial years out to at least that ending 30th June 2036;

3) Longer-term projections out to the financial year ended 30th June 2036 of each of the estimates listed in Chapter 3: Fiscal Strategy of 2023-24 Budget Paper No. 1, as fiscal strategy targets;

4) The risks to Tasmania's financial position, and in particular to the fiscal strategy targets articulated in Chapter 3 of 2023-24 Budget Paper No. 1, of:

a. the scheduled expiry of the 'No Worse Off Guarantee' of Tasmania's share of Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues at the end of the 2029-30 financial year,

b. a fall in commodity prices such as would result in a decline inTasmania's share of GST revenues,

c. Tasmania's prospective demographic profile, andd. alternative scenarios for population and economic growth from those used in RERand PEFO;

5) Any changes that should be made to the presentation of financial,economic or other information and analysis in the annual Budget Papers, Revised Estimates Report, and Treasurer's Annual Financial Report;

6) Options for remedying Tasmania's financial position to the extentindicated as necessary bythe Review's findings in response to these Terms of Reference.

7) Any other matters which the Review considers to be relevant.

The Department of Treasury and Finance will cooperate with the Independent Reviewer in providing all available information relevant to the Terms of Reference when requested in writing to the Secretary of Treasury. This information will be provided within reasonable timeframes.

Subject to the foregoing Terms of Reference:

a. No information to be included in the 2024-25 Budget will be provided until the tabling of the 2024-25 Budget by the Treasurer in Parliament.

b. Any Cabinet information or internal working documents that relate to policy changes used to inform the preparation of the 2024-25 Budget held by Treasury will not be available at any time.

c. In addition, any information included in other financial reports prepared during the Review period will not be made available in advance of publication.

Macquarie Point Multipurpose Precinct - Terms of Reference

1) The independent review of State's finances will include financial modelling of the Macquarie Point Multipurpose Precinct. The independent assessor will review the existing analysis supporting the cost-benefit assessment of the Precinct (including financial modelling and assessments of the social, economic and environmental costs, benefits and impacts of the Precinct) and provide their assessment of the overall costs and benefits of the Precinct. In undertaking their review, the independent assessor may consult both within and outside Government.

2) To facilitate this review, the Government will provide the independent assessor with the following cooperation and assistance:

a. access to all relevant material held by the Government in relation to the Tasmanian AFL team, the Macquarie Point multipurpose stadium, and the Arts, Entertainment and Sports Precinct at Macquarie Point (including all internal working documents, financial, economic, socio-economic, environmental and planning assessments, models and other relevant analysis; relevant contractual agreements including the Tasmania-AFL agreement; and the findings of prior consultations and independent expert input);

b. access to previous analysis and reports relating to other proposed developments at Macquarie Point;

c. full cooperation of Government stakeholders including the opportunity to consult and receive input from political stakeholders and from agencies (and, where relevant, their third-party advisors) involved in the development of the above material; and

d. any other assistance reasonably required by the independent assessor.